The Central Region: Ghana’s Electoral Bellwether

The Central Region of Ghana occupies a unique place in the country’s political landscape, often serving as a decisive bellwether in presidential elections. Since the return to multiparty democracy in 1992 the region has consistently aligned with the winning presidential candidate.

With 23 constituencies, the Central Region has been a battleground that political parties keenly focus on due to its unpredictable yet decisive electoral behaviour.

In every election cycle since 1992, the Central Region has tilted in favour of the eventual winner, making it a crucial swing region. Both the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP) understand that success in this region can be a good omen for winning the presidency.

The region’s diverse economic and social makeup mirrors the broader Ghanaian electorate, with a combination of urban, semi-urban, and rural constituencies. This has made it a prime focus for political campaigns.

ELECTION DYNAMICS IN 2012

The 2012 elections saw John Dramani Mahama of the NDC winning the presidency, and the Central Region played an essential role in this outcome. The NDC presidential candidate won the region by a margin of 62,239 votes, defeating his main opponent, Nana Akufo-Addo of the NPP.

The NDC also took the majority of parliamentary seats in the region, winning 14 constituencies compared to the NPP’s 5. The NDC’s dominance in both the presidential and parliamentary races underscored the Central Region’s loyalty to the eventual winning candidate.

THE 2016 ELECTIONS: A SHIFT IN DYNAMIC

In 2016, however, the political tide in the Central Region shifted significantly. Following the increase in constituencies from 19 to 23 ahead of the 2016 elections, Nana Akufo-Addo, representing the NPP, claimed victory in the region by a margin of 91,406 votes, data from Channel One TV research Unit shows.
This was a momentous increase compared to John Mahama’s 2012 margin.

This swing was key in Nana Akufo-Addo’s overall victory in the national elections. The NPP not only won the presidential race but also flipped the parliamentary landscape in the region. They secured 19 out of the 23 seats, while the NDC managed only 4 seats. This reversal was a clear indicator of the region’s swing nature, with voters shifting their support based on changing national and local dynamics.

The “Skirt and Blouse” Outcome in 2020

The 2020 elections in the Central Region presented a more complex scenario. While incumbent President Nana Akufo-Addo won the presidential election in the region with 602,111 votes, representing 52.7% of the total votes cast, the parliamentary results told a different story. The NDC reclaimed a majority of the parliamentary seats, winning 13 out of 23 constituencies, while the NPP won 10. This “skirt and blouse” voting pattern, where voters split their ballots between presidential and parliamentary races, reflects the nuanced approach of Central Region voters.

Political analysts attributed Akufo-Addo’s presidential victory in 2020 partly to his government’s flagship Free Senior High School (Free SHS) program, which resonated with many parents and young people in the region. The economic benefits and educational opportunities provided by the policy may have swayed voters to stick with the NPP at the presidential level, even as they voted for NDC candidates in parliamentary races. However, the reduced margin of victory compared to 2016 showed growing concerns about economic management and the rising cost of living.

The 2024 Election

As electorates in Ghana gear up for the 2024 elections, the Central Region is once again poised to play a vital role. According to the Ghana Statistical Service, the region is home to about 3 million people, with over 1.5 million registered voters.

The majority of this electorate, nearly 50%, consists of young people, making youth engagement a critical factor in the upcoming elections. Historically, voters in the Central Region have prioritized the economy when choosing a leader, and this year is no different. Issues such as employment, cost of living, and the overall management of the economy are likely to dominate the political discourse.

With Ghana experiencing economic challenges in recent years, including inflation and growing youth unemployment, these concerns will weigh heavily on voters’ minds as they head to the polls. Interactions with residents and voters in the region suggest that the 2024 parliamentary contests will be influenced by local issues and concerns.

While the election is expected to be highly competitive, early indications suggest that the distribution of seats may remain similar to the 2020 outcome, with both the NPP and NDC maintaining a strong presence in the region.

As for the presidential election, it remains uncertain which way the Central Region will swing. On one hand, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the NPP’s presidential candidate, will be appearing on the ballot for the first time. He faces the challenge of maintaining the NPP’s support in the region, building on the legacy of his predecessor, Nana Akufo-Addo with assurance on upgrading the country.

On the other hand, John Dramani Mahama, the NDC’s candidate, will once again attempt to win over voters with a message of resetting the country’s course and addressing economic hardships.

With the Central Region’s track record as a bellwether, political analysts and campaign strategists will be watching closely. The direction the region takes in 2024 will provide valuable insights into the national outcome, as it has done in every election since 1992. Whether the people will back Dr. Bawumia’s continuity and upgrade agenda or opt for Mr. Mahama’s promise of change remains a key question as Election Day approaches.

By: Fred Tettey Djabanor and Sammi Wiafe
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