Ghana’s Bond Market’s Comeback Is A Sign for Investors, Says Analyst

Mr. Isaac Kwasi Mensah, a Financial Analyst and Portfolio Manager at SIC Financial Services Limited, has opined that the rebound in the Ghanaian bond market is a positive signal for investors.

The Ghanaian secondary bond market experienced a dramatic resurgence last week, with total turnover surging by an impressive 600% to GH¢527.72 million.

According to Mr. Kwasi Mensah, the situation, largely as a result of the prominence of sell-buy-back trades in driving market activity cannot be overstated.

He explained that the buyback strategy, involving the sale of bonds with an agreement to repurchase them at a later date, offers investors short-term liquidity while maintaining exposure to the bond market. This approach has become increasingly attractive to investors seeking flexibility and opportunities for profit amid market fluctuations.

“This sharp increase, following a period of subdued activity, signals renewed investor confidence and strategic movements within the market. This remarkable rebound was largely driven by sell-buy-back trades, a strategy that involves selling bonds with the agreement to repurchase them at a later date.

“This approach accounted for about 57% of the week’s market turnover, underscoring its role as a key driver of market liquidity and activity. For investors seeking short-term liquidity, sell-buy-backs offer a practical solution, providing flexibility and opportunities for profit amidst market fluctuations” he said.

Critical Points

Mr. Kwasi Mensah, moreover, noted that the significant increase in market activity highlights a few critical points for the Ghanaian economy and its financial markets.

Firstly, he said it reflected a robust underlying demand for government securities, which are often considered safe investments. 

He added, “This demand is crucial for the government’s ability to raise funds for development projects and to manage public debt effectively. Secondly, the surge in turnover can be seen as a response to broader economic conditions and investor sentiment.

“In times of uncertainty, investors tend to gravitate towards more secure assets, and the bond market provides a haven amidst volatile equity markets and uncertain economic forecasts. The sell-buy-back strategy, in particular, caters to this sentiment by offering a mechanism to manage short-term liquidity needs without committing to long-term holds.”

The analyst indicated that he is optimistic about the continuation of this trend, anticipating that trading activity will further improve. 

“The sell-buy-back dynamic is likely to remain a central feature of market operations, given its alignment with investor needs for liquidity and strategic flexibility”.

However, Mr Mensah noted that it is essential to consider the broader economic context in which the market activity is occurring. Ghana, like many other emerging markets, faces a range of challenges, including inflationary pressures, currency fluctuations, and external debt obligations.

“The bond market’s performance can be seen as both a reflection of these challenges and a potential mitigator. By providing a platform for liquidity and investment, the bond market helps stabilize the financial system, supporting broader economic stability.”

Breaking down the trading volumes, it is evident that short-to-medium term maturities were particularly favored. Bonds maturing between 2027 and 2030 constituted 57% of the total volume traded, while those maturing between 2031 and 2034 accounted for the remaining 43%.

This preference indicates a cautious yet optimistic outlook among investors, who are likely balancing the need for returns with the desire to manage risk over the coming years.

The recent rebound in the bond market also highlights the role of investor sentiment in driving market activity. The sharp increase in turnover suggests that investors are regaining confidence and are willing to engage in strategic trading practices. This renewed confidence is vital for maintaining market stability and supporting economic growth.

In all, the sharp increase in bond market turnover last week is a positive development for Ghana’s financial markets. It reflects renewed investor confidence and strategic trading practices that enhance market liquidity.

As the analyst predicted further improvements in trading activity, the bond market will continue to play a crucial role in the country’s economic set up, offering insights into investor sentiment and providing a stable foundation for economic growth and development.