IMF Staff Agreement to Stabilize Ghana’s Stock Market – Analyst

The recent staff-level agreement reached between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Ghana presents a significant opportunity for the West African nation to restore fiscal stability, bolster investor confidence, and set the stage for economic recovery.

Mrs Ruth Ofori, a financial analyst and the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Lolyfx LTD, while shedding light on the latest development in an interview, noted that this agreement, part of the third review of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), is crucial not only for the government but also for key financial markets such as the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) and the Treasury bills (T-bills) market.

“The impending disbursement of approximately SDR 269.1 million (around US$360 million) could help stabilize these markets and enhance the overall economic outlook of the country”.

According to the analyst, the Ghana Stock Exchange, like many stock markets in emerging economies, is highly sensitive to shifts in macroeconomic conditions, investor sentiment, and government policy.

She further noted “Over the past year, Ghana has faced significant economic challenges, including high inflation, currency depreciation, and fiscal imbalances. These have contributed to a volatile trading environment on the GSE, with investors showing a lack of confidence in the country’s economic trajectory.

“The IMF agreement, however, signals a turning point. The financial support offered under the ECF is contingent on the government implementing crucial reforms aimed at fiscal consolidation, debt sustainability, and restoring macroeconomic stability. By adhering to these reforms, the government can gradually regain control over inflation and reduce public debt, two factors that have been eroding investor confidence.”

Mrs Ruth Ofori averred that for the GSE, this is a positive news. She explained that a more stable economic environment, supported by the IMF, could attract both foreign and domestic investors who may have previously been hesitant to invest in Ghana’s stock market.

The analyst asserted that sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and manufacturing, which are closely linked to economic growth, stand to benefit the most.

“With renewed investor confidence, trading volumes on the GSE could rise, leading to a potential recovery in stock prices, which have seen significant dips in recent months.”

Lowering Yields

Mrs Ruth Ofori further stated that the Treasury bills market has been a critical source of short-term financing for the Ghanaian government.

However, the country’s fiscal difficulties have pushed yields on T-bills to relatively high levels, reflecting increased risk perception by investors.

“In a high-inflation, high-interest rate environment, the government has had to offer higher returns to attract buyers for its debt, further straining its finances,” she pointed out.

Mrs Ruth Ofori opined that the IMF agreement comes as a potential game-changer for the T-bills market.

“With the expected disbursement of US$360 million, the government will have greater liquidity, reducing its immediate need to borrow at such high rates. This increased financial support from the IMF will allow the government to manage its short-term financing needs more efficiently, potentially leading to a reduction in T-bill yields” Mrs Ruth Ofori added.

The CEO of Lolyfx LTD stated that lower yields will also be a sign of improving investor sentiment and reduced risk.

“As the government makes progress on implementing fiscal reforms and reducing its debt burden, investors may start to perceive Ghana’s debt as less risky, which in turn will lower the returns they demand to hold government securities. This could also ease pressure on the government’s borrowing costs, freeing up resources that can be channeled into productive investments.”

Private Sector Investment

An additional benefit of the IMF deal, according to Mrs Ruth Ofori, is the potential to crowd-in private sector investment. She noted that over the past few years, the government’s high borrowing from the domestic market has often crowded out private sector access to credit.

“Commercial banks have preferred to invest in low-risk, high-yield government securities such as T-bills, rather than extending loans to private businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

“As the IMF-backed reforms take hold, and the government reduces its reliance on domestic borrowing, commercial banks may have greater incentive to lend to the private sector. This could lead to increased access to credit for businesses, supporting growth and job creation in critical sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services” she added.

However, Mrs Ruth Ofori indicated that while the IMF deal is by no means a silver bullet for Ghana’s economic challenges, it provides a critical lifeline that could stabilize the country’s financial markets in the short to medium term.

She iterated that for the Ghana Stock Exchange, improved macroeconomic conditions, combined with restored investor confidence, could lead to a rebound in stock prices and trading volumes. Meanwhile, in the Treasury bills market, lower yields would signal reduced risk and lower borrowing costs for the government, helping to address fiscal imbalances.

“Ultimately, the success of this IMF deal hinges on the government’s ability to implement the necessary reforms and maintain fiscal discipline. However, with the right policies in place, Ghana could emerge from its current economic challenges with a more resilient financial sector, providing a foundation for sustainable growth and development.”