What’s at Stake in Congo’s Presidential Election?

Democratic Republic of Congo will vote on Dec. 23 in a long-delayed election that could enable the vast Central African country’s first democratic transfer of power since independence from Belgium in 1960.

Congolese hope the election can help turn the page on a violent history – or at least head off an even darker turn.

Starting with the Belgian- and American-backed overthrow of independence leader Patrice Lumumba in 1960, every transfer of power has come at the barrel of a gun. That included autocrat Mobutu Sese Seko’s overthrow in 1997 after 32 years in power and his successor Laurent-Desire Kabila’s assassination in 2001.

Two regional wars between 1996 and 2003, triggered in part by the 1994 genocide in neighboring Rwanda, sucked in a half-dozen regional armies and resulted in millions of deaths.

Since then, Congo has remained a violent place and fighting between the government and rebel militia has sent hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing across its borders.

Regional powers such as Angola and Rwanda pushed for Kabila to step down after his refusal to do so when his mandate expired in 2016 caused violent protests and worsened militia violence.

Congo is the world’s biggest producer of cobalt, a key component in batteries for electric cars and mobile phones. It is also Africa’s top copper miner and a significant producer of gold.

Twenty-one candidates will appear on the presidential ballot, but only three are considered serious contenders.

Shadary, a former interior minister, was little known before Kabila named him in August to run. But he has strong support from government institutions and a sizeable campaign war chest.

He faces a divided opposition, which agreed last month to back former ExxonMobil manager Martin Fayulu as its candidate, only for Felix Tshisekedi, the president of Congo’s largest opposition party, to back out of the deal.

A rare national opinion poll in October showed Tshisekedi on 36 percent, with 16 percent for Shadary and 8 percent for Fayulu.