What will decide the US election and why it’s so close

Never in recent US political history has the outcome of a presidential election been so in doubt – this is not a contest for the faint of heart.

While past elections have been narrowly decided – George W Bush’s 2000 victory over Al Gore came down to a few hundred votes in Florida – there’s always been some sense of which direction the race was tilting in the final days.

Sometimes, as in 2016, the sense is wrong. In that year, polls overestimated Hillary Clinton’s strength and failed to detect a late-breaking movement in Donald’s Trump favour.

This time around, however, the arrows are all pointing in different directions. No-one can seriously make a prediction either way.

A coin-toss

Most of the final polls are well within the margin of error, both nationally and in the seven key battleground states that will decide the election.

Based on statistics and sample sizes alone, that means either candidate could be ahead.

It is this uncertainty that vexes political pundits and campaign strategists alike.

There have been a smattering of surprises – not least one notable example, a recent respected survey of Republican-leaning Iowa giving Harris a shock lead.

But the major polling averages, and the forecasting models that interpret them, all show this as a coin-toss contest.

A clear winner is still possible

Just because the outcome of this election is uncertain, that doesn’t mean the actual result won’t be decisive – a shift of a few percentage points either way, and a candidate could sweep all of the battleground states.

If the voter turnout models are wrong and more women head to the polls, or more rural residents, or more disaffected young voters – that could dramatically shift the final results.

There could also be surprises among key demographic groups.

Will Trump really make the inroads with young black and Latino men that his campaign has predicted? Is Harris winning over a larger proportion of traditionally Republican suburban women, as her team is hoping? Are elderly voters – who reliably vote every election and tend to lean to the right – moving into the Democratic column?

Once this election is in the rear-view mirror, we may be able to conclusively point to a reason why the winning candidate came out on top.

Perhaps, in hindsight, the answer will be obvious. But anyone who says they know how things will turn out right now is fooling you – and themselves.

 

Source: BBC