Will Dumelo make Lydia Alhassan a ‘half-term’ MP?
If there has been any constituency that has already set tongues wagging with possible outcomes and permutations, then it certainly got to be the Ayawaso West Wuogon (AWW).
With election 2020 upon us, the atmosphere in the constituency is fast gripping the nation.
The situation couldn’t have been more exciting given the recent comment by Foreign Affairs Minister, Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey on parliament being for serious business and the matters that have arisen therefrom with reactions from the creative industry for and against John Dumelo. The minister had gone to the constituency to campaign. Indeed, that matter is still a burning issue, yet to be resolved – if it ever would.
The two leading candidates for the elections, Mr John Dumelo for the National Democratic Congress and Madam Lydia Alhassan, the incumbent for the New Patriotic Party, both in their own rights are answers to a much-overlooked problem of representational disparities in minority demographics with regards to Ghana’s legislative body.
Social media comments from varied users on a possible relocation to the constituency as a result of generous gestures from the two political ‘novices’ running to be a legislator, have been endless. It is one of the constituencies that has been most featured on social media.
On August 24, 2019, Mr. John Dumelo resoundingly polled 758 votes to become the NDC candidate for the constituency as against his only contender, Madam Adoboe who managed with a paltry 99 votes.
Madam Lydia Alhassan was not contested. The party thought it important to make her run unopposed.
Mr. John Dumelo’s age fits the criteria of a young person seeking to enter parliament which current average age hovers between 48-49 years. [ http://citifmonline.com/2017/01/ghanas-7th-parliament-the-age-dynamics-infographic/]
On the other hand, should Madam Lydia Alhassan’s re-election bid prove successful, she hopefully improves on the 13.5% of female representation in Ghana’s legislature.
In 2004, the then University of Ghana lecturer and NPP aspirant for Ayawaso West Wuogon, Frema Osei Opare in her battle to become Member of Parliament for the area, campaigned for change based on gender imbalance in Ghana’s legislature. https://www.modernghana.com/news/53810/lecturer-to-challenge-mr-amoo-for-ayawaso-west-wuogon-seat.html
“Election 2004 must offer the political parties the remedial platform to change this imbalance through the endorsement of more women as parliamentary candidates,” Madam Frema Osei is quoted as saying in 2004 (Source: GNA)
Whether acts of kindness or populist incidences and endeavors, the Ayawaso West Wuogon constituency cannot go unnoticed in any conversation on the country’s general politicking.
Many factors account for this. Key among such reasons include the 2018 by-election which turned out to be one of the darkest moments in Ghana’s electoral history. – as I explain later on in this piece.
The gentrified state of the constituency and the geographical and economic make-up of the area could also be another reason.
The Ayawaso West Wuogon constituency is definitely one of the biggest constituencies geographically; however, per the 2020 electoral roll released by the Electoral Commission, the constituency doesn’t make a top 10 list of biggest constituencies in Ghana. It is the 28th with a voter population of 105,147. The largest is Dome/Kwabenya and the smallest being Akatsi North.
The Ayawaso West Wuogon constituency is noted for some plush areas like East Legon, West Legon, Dzorwulu, Airport West and Roman Ridge.
It is equally home to some very deplorable slums dotted across the constituency. Slums in popular areas such as American House and Okponglo. There is another emerging slum at Airport, a place called Opeibea near Alliance Francaise.
Hence, an effective campaign will be one that will be able to appeal to a very diverse population on the electoral roll.
Campaign messages ought to be bespoke for each constituent.
In the year 1996, Mrs. Rebecca Akweley Adotey of the NDC became the first woman to be an MP for the area.
The NPP’s Frema Akosua Opare will go on to become the MP for the area in 2004, for two terms, in the process beating Samuel Adiepena of the NDC by 7,808.
Interestingly, the CPP Presidential candidate for the 2016 and 2020 elections, Ivor Greenstreet sought to represent AWW but he could barely manage 10% of votes cast.
Any analysis of the state of the Ayawaso West Wuogon constituencies without an input on insights from the immediate past Member of Parliament, Emmanuel Kyeremanteng Agyarko would be incomplete.
After a very successful campaign to beat the NDC’s Kwame Awuah Darko who will also later go on to head BOST and TOR under former President John Mahama, Mr. Kyeremanten Agyarko was MP for 6 years until his untimely death.
This was a man I came to know personally during my days as a student broadcast journalist at the University of Ghana.
His calm demeanor and very well calculated approach to going about his politics, was very noteworthy of him.
He rarely refused any interviews. He readily availed himself to my team and I, anytime we needed him for a particular conversation.
More often than not, he will opt to make an in-studio appearance during our Campus Exclusive show other than settle for a phone conversation.
His rigorous but yet effective campaign strategy in 2016 is one thing I fondly remember him for.
You expected to see Mr. Kyeremateng in your main campus bound shuttle on Mondays as early as 6am in the heat of the campaign season. Outside of politics, he was a nice and hearty bloke. May his soul rest in peace.
A bloody by-election
Hon. Agyarko’s demise as sad as it was, ultimately proved to be a sneak peak of what Ghanaians were to expect going into elections 2020. The by-election to replace him was arguably the worst in terms of violence in Ghana’s by-election history.
Headlines read “Bloody by-elections”, “Chaos, violence, mayhem characterize AWW by-elections” a day after the election which brought Madam Lydia Alhassan, a wife of the late Mr. Kyeremanteng Agyarko into Ghana’s 7th parliament of the 4th republic. She was to complete her late husband’s term – half term.
The Ayawaso West Wuogon by-election took place on 31st January, 2019 and was characterized by aggression, violence, mayhem, bullets, blood, militia styled policing, people running helter-skelter, journalists taking cover for fear of losing their lives, and many other embarrassing scenes.
Violence erupted near the La-Bawaleshie school park polling station. Though no death recorded, there were casualties. Ningo-Prampram MP Sam George was assaulted by a so-called national security officer. Ishau Yaro, a footballer, was shot in the leg and spent weeks at the 37 Military Hospital for treatment.
The ensuing violence led to the NDC withdrawing their candidate Delali Brempong from the elections.
“We are serving them notice. They shall never deploy such a force in any election in Ghana again. We will resist it. You haven’t seen armed men running away before? When the power of the people comes after you, you will run. This is the ‘all die be die’ philosophy at work. We won’t accept ‘all die be die’ in this country.
“They are not supposed to have hoodlums dressed in police uniforms using police vehicles and firing bullets at our innocent civilians.” The NDC Chairman, Samuel Ofosu Ampofo said in response to what his party described as a state-sponsored violence.
The Coalition of Domestic Election Observers (CODEO), an independent and non-partisan organization made up of civil society groups, faith-based organizations and professional organizations which observe elections in Ghana also criticized the violence that characterized the elections.
“Nevertheless, CODEO wishes to indicate that the security arrangements put in place for the conduct of the polls at various polling stations observed were not conducive for an electoral exercise.”
A Commission of Enquiry made up of eminent persons, was set-up by the presidency to investigate the violence and make recommendations, the rest they say is history.
Many election experts and security analysts have argued that the unfortunate happenings at AWW could be a dress rehearsal for what to expect in 2020 if pragmatic measures are not put in place.
The problems in the Ayawaso West Wuogon constituency vary and are specific from community to community.
In his usual online campaign on his massive social media platform, the actor cum politician, John Dumelo, posted a picture of himself appearing to cross “a river” in his constituency.
This was his accompanying caption:
“A lot of people are asking if this is in Ayawaso West. Yes. This is West Legon, People live in slums and have to cross ‘rivers’ before going to school and to work. I’m here to change their lives.” Mr. Dumelo posted on Social Media.
Having laid this robust foundation of understanding, let’s weigh in on the chances of the two political novices seeking to lead the constituency in Ghana’s legislature.
In the 2016 elections, the late Emmanuel Kyeremanteng Agyarko beat the NDC candidate for the area, Delali Kwasi Brempong by 10,057 votes.
Emmanuel Kyeremanteng Agyarko garnered a total of 32,591 as against the NDC’s 22, 534 votes. The election was the highest percentage win margin for any parliamentary candidate for the area since 1996.
For the Presidential election, President Nana Akufo-Addo had a total of 32,493 votes as against Former President Mahama’s 24,208.
The constituency voted skirt and blouse in 2012 with John Mahama winning the Presidential for NDC and Emmanuel Agyarko winning the seat for the NPP.
Francis Napoleon K. Kumah, of the National Convention Party (NCP) won the seat in 1992.
The NDC’s only parliamentary win in the constituency came in 1996 when Mrs. Rebecca Akweley Adotey beat the NPP’s George Isaac Amoo with less than 300 votes. Interestingly, the NPP candidate was declared winner of the 1996 polls by the High Court after Mrs Adotey had almost finished the term. Mr Isaac Amoo had challenged the result in court.
The NDC candidate polled 15,089 as against the NPP’s 14,795 making that the closest margin win at the parliamentary level and the NDC’s only win.
The 2020 elections in the constituency appears to be heading towards a repeat of the 1996 election, not in terms of the winner, but the reality about a potential close outcome.
Many reasons explain why the race will be a close one. The personalities of the individuals come into play very much here.
In 2016, the defeat of the NDC’s candidate in the constituency was partly as a result of the lack of charisma on the part of Delali Kwasi Brempong.
Although he ran a very affluent campaign, distributing freebies to students and constituents, the Pharmacist in his campaign clearly could not match the buoyancy and charisma of the late MP, E. K. Agyarko.
I recall on many instances how Mr. Kyeremanteng Agyarko simply walked into a student event at the University of Ghana and instantly ran the show.
In 2020, Maa Lydia, as she is affectionately called by people close to her and John Dumelo, both are quite charismatic characters and also well-endowed with the cash.
As we have witnessed already, the two are already spending in the constituency.
From delivering truckloads of food items during the 2019 Christmas period to constituents, visiting female university students with chocolates during Val’s day, provision of sanitary materials to constituents in the COVID-19 pandemic fight, dredging gutters and fumigating churches. To be fair, the two candidates have been very impressive in the run to win the constituency.
They have conducted their campaigns in generally decorous manner.
However, this election unlike the others, will not be determined by who is able to win the University of Ghana campus convincingly. The UG campus was a major determinant for who became MP. However, this time, due to COVID-19, the University is closed.
Notwithstanding the school closure, some academic members are still in school and a good number of students who live in Accra, registered on campus.
The Constituency of the Intelligentsia
The University of Ghana has a student population of about 37,940, together with teaching and non-teaching staff at the University, the numbers could well be over 45,000
The numbers are even far more considering the Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration (GIMPA) and Knutsford University College are all situated in the constituency.
Granted not all of these members of the University community will be voting in the constituency, it is also worth noting that quite a significant number of these people also cast their vote on their various campuses.
Improving your electability to students can be a very daunting task as it involves a lot of hardwork and a brief shift from the conventional way of doing politics in the country.
It appears to even be a more difficult task selling a campaign message to the academic members of this community. These people more often than not are at the center of national debates and policy reformations; an attempt in convincing them is always going to be a tough one.
For anyone seeking to win the hearts of constituents in the Universities, among other things you must be willing to attend student organized programs such as Hall weeks and other Student Representative Council organized events, departmental events, and participate in other religious activities on campus.
It can prove to be a very time consuming venture and a tiring task as there is the tendency to overlook other key areas of the constituency. It is not far-fetched to say the University of Ghana always received an unfairly high percentage of attention going into elections.
Winning the constituency will require a lot of hard work.
In the 2016 elections, the NPP had a very resounding win in both the parliamentary and presidential elections at not just the University of Ghana campus, but all other major campuses in the country.
The NDC and Mr. Dumelo will look at the past results and have to come out with very creative ways of reversing the trend.
It could start with announcing some very student specific promises on reviewing the cost of tertiary education in the country.
An open and transparent process to attaining government sponsorship for students is also one thing that will resonate with students a lot.
Issues on research grants will also excite a lot of lecturers in the country as well.
I believe a strategic, deliberate approach in winning back the hearts of students is one thing the NDC should take seriously going into elections 2020 and their 2020 has tried to bridge that gap.
To be fair, the future looks bleak for any political party that is not appealing for the learned class.
“I am very much aware of the difficulties you are having, when we come in we are going to look at very seriously the whole financing of tertiary education so that people from poor homes can have access to education.
“I know your worries, all of you tell me every day, all of your accounts to me on a daily basis, the challenge you have keeping yourself in school. I know. The challenge you have paying your school fees and residential fees. The other challenge, I know the question you ask about what will happen to us after university” – President Nana Akufo-Addo promised students at the NPP mini-rally at the University of Ghana in 2016.
This has however not been the case some 4 years after he won the elections. A very candid and open-minded approach by John Dumelo and the NDC on reviewing the cost of tertiary education will be very appealing to tertiary students in the country. The ‘faninyinaa’ free first year university promise might have come a bit late but December 7 will tell whether it did work or not.
A mismatch popularity contest?
For Maa Lydia and the NPP, their campaign sought to consolidate the goodwill the party has enjoyed, evident by recent election results in the area.
Any complacency on the path of the campaign team, could prove disastrous. As matching up John Dumelo’s huge popularity already seems very unlikely.
John Dumelo’s over 3.3million followers on Instagram, 1.3 million on Twitter and 5.1 million likes on Facebook will make him the most popular person on digital media (as of the time of writing this article). That will make him the most popular legislator on social media in the country, should he win.
That will make him the most popular legislator on social media in the country, should he win.
The closest person in Government capable of matching Mr. Dumelo’s astronomical numbers is the President, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, but he still falls short. Lydia Alhassan doesn’t fit in a conversation here.
Prior to becoming Member of Parliament in a much contested election that had some section of Ghana’s minority holding placards with inscriptions such as “bloody widow” during her swearing in, very little had been heard of madam Lydia Alhassan.
Values, promises?
Detailed conversations and media engagements on how the two candidates intend to the bring the much needed change to the constituency, has not really happened to the satisfaction of many. What has been done is a lot of grassroot politics. Both candidates have tried to take their message down to the people, which means a lot of community-specific messaging has been going on.
A report from the Ghana Statistical service in 2012 revealed that the employment sector for the constituency is about 26,295.
15,885 were reported to be in the private sector.
The numbers have not changed much. However it’s important to point out that new areas for social relaxation and entertainment centers such as bars, pubs and other private entities are fast rising in the area.
Hence, taking the needs of all of these into consideration with regards to policy formulation will go a long way to determining who gets the nod and who does not.
Does John Dumelo have what it takes to make Lydia Alhassan a one-time MP? A lot will depend on how well he has been able to articulate and mirror the aspirations of the people he seeks to lead.
Conclusion
Mr. Dumelo’s ability to take advantage of his huge popularity as well as putting in the hard work as he has tried to do will most likely than not make him the next MP for the constituency. His huge popularity is something the NDC as a party will seek to also take advantage of, going into the 2020 elections as they did in 2016.
Madam Lydia Alhassan will be seeking to consolidate what is gradually becoming an NPP stronghold constituency. It will not come easy. But her ability to successfully do that and take advantage of her party’s incumbency and build on her late husband’s legacy will see her retaining the seat and starting out her own full term as MP.
It is without a doubt that the 2020 Ayawaso West Wuogon race will set out to be one of the most exciting constituency contests going into the elections.
I wish them well, and may the better of the two win.
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The writer, Jude Mensa Duncan, is a journalist with Citi FM/Citi TV and citinewsroom.com
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